Next Buying Signal for Stocks

The next buying indicator of a recovering economy is to see weakening of USD. The current strong usd is making exports in the U.S. less attractive. More inflow of usd can inject more funds into capital markets

Why is the weakening of USD?

• IMF bailout of Ukraine requires USD to be strong. However, bond holders refused to write down debts in Ukraine, thus may trigger a potential Fed rise of interest rates in December. (http://www.rferl.org/content/imf-gives-ukraine-loan-after-strong-start-reforms/27164015.html)
• September FOMC meeting, Fed decided to keep interest rates low. A higher interest rates may depress bond prices and trigger a selldown. USD will strengthen and China will benefit due to better export numbers. Will result in lesser export for U.S, thus decreasing employment rate.(http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/sep/23/the-fed-must-ignore-accusations-of-dithering-over-interest-rates)
• Weakening of USD could be a result of QE 4, or a continued lower interest rates environment in order to boost bond prices, maintain inflation rate and maintain the stock market.

Future of oil price uncertain

Threat to oil price may occur in small occurrences but can get bigger as electric cars and solar energy are becoming more widespread:

• Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil exporter is looking towards alternative solar energy to harvest electricity. (http://www.pv-tech.org/news/saudi_arabias_first_pv_inverter_manufacturing_line_opens_to_meet_local_cont)
• Tesla successfully developed electric cars
• China building more charging facilities (http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/tech/2015-09/11/content_21842535.htm)
• Reputable investors like Warren Buffett and George Soros are dumping oil stocks (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-14/billionaire-soros-sells-most-of-alibaba-reduces-its-oil-stocks)(http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2015/08/23/why-did-warren-buffett-sell-700-million-in-oil-sto.aspx)