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Sunday, May 5, 2013

Evolving Stock Market

Since the 2008-2009 stock market crash, the market have been moving with a lot of uncertainty. Sentiments of a stock market crash have been underway since 2012 and there are fears in investing into equities.

After a report by Jim O'Neill saying that it makes sense for central banks to own equities, the stock market has already been on a bullish path. He also added that many sovereign wealth funds which are tied to central banks have already invested in stocks.

Source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100674247

The increased in liquidity could probably explains why stocks are rising. And the reason why equities are preferred rather than commodities is that they give dividends to shareholders while holding on to commodities like silver and gold doesn't provide any returns on investment.

Stock prices also indicate an improving economy in the U.S. and the rest of the world as companies report better earnings.


A visible pattern can be seen in the current stock market that seems to be different from how it was in the 2008 stock market crash.

The increased liquidity injected into equities are more fluent and steady in a way that is more evenly distributed. Stock markets are less prone to over-heating as previously stocks are blindly bought with "free cash flow".

Rising equities can be seen as inflation and banks and economies developed better counter-measures for overheating. Singapore currency went up against the USD to counter overheating. The Japanese Yen weakened together with the USD and drives exports in both Japan and the U.S. Asian countries like Singapore, welcomes "cheap money" in the stock market, which explains the rise in equities. 

Back in 2008, the crash seems to be engineered in a sense that the media and the rating companies were reassuring the public to stay invested when the fundamentals are not in place. However, now the rising bubble seems to be more cushioned thanks to mistakes in the past and also indicative of a slow global economic recovery. But that said, rating companies like S&P and Moody's rating cannot always be used as indicators as they might be able to engineer a certain outcome. 

From 
to 



Friday, April 26, 2013

Hyflux, the next big thing?


Hyflux have faced stiff competition in the water market. They specialised in Seawater Reverse Osmosis(SWRO) plants which due to high expenses, may not be the most preferred choice.

However, Hyflux did not give up hope on the China market, which it seen to contain huge potential to its business, managed to sign two memoranda of understanding (MOU) in China.

"Hyflux said in a statement it had signed two memoranda of understanding (MOUs) with the governments of Chuxiong and Qujing.
The total investment value is estimated to be around 1.2 billion yuan (S$240 million) for the projects in Qujing and less than 2 billion yuan for the projects in Chuxiong.
The projects covered under the MOUs include developing water recycling, wastewater treatment and potable water treatment plants."

The table below shows that other companies are able to penetrate China better than Hyflux. The major revenue from Hyflux is from Singapore.

Source: http://www.sharesinv.com/articles/2012/03/02/can-hyflux%E2%80%99s-tap-continue-to-flow-beyond-the-home-turf/

Hyflux generally has grown in terms of revenue and net profits but however, despite the high expenses and competition from the water industry, the outlook for Hyflux doesn't seem very favourable. Furthermore, the issuance of preference a few years back with the guaranteed returns of 6% may give Hyflux a tougher time to refinance or buy back the debts.

Hyflux's high debt position remains a challenge to its future. Once the Tuas Desalination Plant in Singapore is operational, Hyflux may see a brighter light with more profits coming in from Singapore. With adequate funding, Hyflux may be able to better finance its debts and grow healthily.

A "HOLD" rating will be given due to high debts and expenses incurred by Hyflux.

Sneak peak at the Telecom Sector

Generally, telecom sector stocks like Starhub, Singtel and M1 have grown quite well in the recently. Let's look at their performance for the past 6 months.

Starhub increased from 3.68 to 4.35 in the last 6 months, up 18%

M1 Ltd, owned by Telecom Giant Axiata Group Berhad went up from 2.61 to 3.17 in the last 6 months, up 21%.

Temesek Holdings owned Telco, Singtel, went up from 3.21 to 3.77 in the last 6 months, up 17%. It last announced to set up a subsidary into the newly open economy, Myanmar but still pending for further updates. Myanmar could be seen as a major growth benefactor for singtel


Wednesday, April 17, 2013

Corporate Rating for Thai Bev


Standard & Poor had remove Thai Beverage from its credit watch. Its rating had also been changed from BBB to BBB- with negative outlook.

According to S&P website:
‘BBB-‘—Considered lowest investment grade by market participants.

The first reason was due to the high cost of the F&N acquisition which amount to about US$11.2Bn. The company debts are expected to remain high and cash flow to remain adequate. 

The second reason was that TCC Assets hold about 61% of F&N and no plans were known as to how the debt will be financed.

With that being said, F&N still remains strong in its beverage sectors owning 100 PLUS, Fruit Tree, Seasons and Ice Mountain.

Drinks made up majority of profits in coffee shops and will continue to grow because people will need to quench their thirst. This stock poses strong upside potential and will possess the financial strength to handle the debts.

Source: http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/VwAttachments/Att_901BDC35F61B0FFB48257B4A004547E9/$file/Corporate_Rating_by_SP.pdf?openelement

Source: http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2013/04/12/thaibevs-fn-deal-prompts-credit-rating-downgrade/

Wednesday, March 27, 2013

Olam in danger?


I've a friend who bought this stock and i was a little speechless because since he bought it, wouldn't be a good idea to pour hot water on him. But i try to put it in a polite manner, "Well, have you read its financial reports? Do you have good understanding of its business operations?" And he said, "Not really but since it dropped quite a lot since last week, looks like a good buy so i bought it". And the fortunate thing is Temesek Holdings was willing to support their rights issue during that period and he managed to sell it for a decent profit. I was glad for him.

Not that i knew a lot about Olam but looking at the financial report, it kind of make me uneasy. Below is the financial statement for the first half ended 31 December 2012.

Both figures which are highlighted in red indicates the revenue and net profit respectively. In short, Olam has revenue close to about $9.6bn. However, after deducting the expenses, the company earns close to $200m which translates to about only 2% of revenue. This looks crazy to me because the company incur some pretty dangerous operation costs.

Below shows the their borrowings which have grown 15-30% from last year to this year(bad indicator).
Moving on to the financing activities for the company, the only thing i want to highlight here is that there is no indication of them paying off debts, which is one of the most dangerous parts that normal investor will not be able to see. Their debts are increasing, and yet they are having trouble paying them off.


In summary, this company is in trouble but some people are still betting their money on it. Let time decide if this company will survive and make it. I highly doubt this company will ever be profitable in this current state.

Source: http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/VwAttachments/Att_022449932FC2A5F648257B0B002FE6CA/$file/7Feb2013-H1FY2013_Results.pdf?openelement

complicated business, Capital Land


For 3 years of my investment experience, i have never read about capital land's financials or even think of investing in this company, not because it doesn't look attractive but rather i do not know the valuation of the company. Their assets are very broadly scattered and thus, is difficult to know or understand the nature of their businesses.

Lets take a look at Capital Land:

Capital Land had tried to reduce their debts but even after its bank borrowings and issurance of debt securities, they are still negative of about $680m on cash flow.

There are no clear indications of how the investments will generate high returns but their debt level doesn't look good.

Although their Net Asset Value(NAV) is close to its buy price, the PE ratio of 16 indicated that the earning potential of the company is still not fantastic, or rather they have not reap what they sow yet.

An image of Capital Land's cash flow statement:


Saturday, March 23, 2013

These are some factors to consider when buying a stock


For this post, i will quote the example from Swissco Holdings FY2012 financial statement.


Source: http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/VwAttachments/Att_7E3838BAE920403448257B1E0033133B/$file/FY2012SHLYearEndAnnouncement_26Feb13.pdf?openelement






  • Repayment of borrowings > Proceeds from borrowing (both in 2011 and 2012)
  • Net increase in cash and cash equivalents (both in 2011 and 2012)
When the repayment of borrowings amount is more than the proceeds from borrowing means that the company is able to generate more cash from previous borrowings to reduce its debts. It is good for the shareholders because it allows shareholders to own more assets than the company's debts.

Below is the image showing the Net Asset Value(NAV) per share. When debts are reduced, NAV will increase.


The net increase in cash and cash equivalents also reflected positively on the company's performance as it is able to generate more cash than expenses.



Friday, March 22, 2013

Opportunites in 4th runway in Changi

SINGAPORE - Changi Airport is studying the need for a fourth runway to cater to more flights in the coming decades, even as plans are finalised for a third landing and take-off strip.

The Civil Aviation Authority of Singapore (CAAS) is seeking consultants to look into the feasibility and benefits of a fourth runway, The Straits Times found out.

Source: http://news.asiaone.com/News/Latest%2BNews/Relax/Story/A1Story20130321-410381.html

The rapid expansion of the aviation industry leads to many investment opportunities which lie ahead. The first and upcoming is the seletar aviation hub which will be completed somewhere in 2014.
Below is the location map from JTC.



The Seletar Aviation Bub seeks to reinforce Singapore as a major hub for aerospace and will attract more companies to expand their aviation capabilities. Their strategy to is also supported by the projected strong growth in Asia’s demand for business jets (expected to grow 6-9% per annum over the next five to ten years). A slow but constant growth.


JTC Corporation said these companies stand to benefit from many synergies resulting from an integrated environment and the close proximity to suppliers and partners.Aerospace companies to benefit from synergies at Seletar Aerospace Park.



Stocks to benefit

As Singapore position itself for the aviation growth, the demand for in-flight catering services as well as gateway services will increase. 

SATS, SIA Engineering, ST-Engineering


At Singapore Changi Airport, SATS handles 80% of scheduled flights and serves about 50 of the scheduled 68 airlines out of Singapore. With constant innovation and a growing network of partners, SATS offers a suite of value added services integrating knowledge, specialised skills and ample resources to meet the needs of this industry.
Source: http://www.sats.com.sg/SolutionsandServices/ByIndustry/Airline/Pages/Airline.aspx

ST-engineering revolves much around Singapore's military capabilities. One of such benefits will be the allowing up to 4 of the new Littoral Combat Ships to dock in Changi Naval Base by Singapore. Although this only will contribute a portion to the ST-marine arm, but ST-engineering as a whole, is able to grab military contracts from around the world, thus proving to be able to constantly generate revenue for the company. 

Below are 2 military contracts won by ST-Engineering this year:
  • Construction of 8 RSN patrol vessels by MINDEF (30 Jan 13)
  • ST ENGINEERING’S AEROSPACE ARM SECURES C130 CONTRACT FROM ROYAL AIR FORCE OF OMAN (15 Jan 13)
Source: 


SIA Engineering, positioned in Changi will be one of singapore's top spot for (MRO) when Changi airport expands. The planning of the 4th runway is an indication that provide vast opportunities for SIA Engineering which is the main (MRO) spot in Changi. 

4 reasons why SIA Engineering is still on industry's top spot

Monday, March 4, 2013

The dragons are sleeping, Dukang Distillers

Investment risk associated with Dukang

  1. Government regulatory controls
  2. Cessation of substantial shareholders over the past three months
  3. Slumping prices for Moutai and Wuliangye products



Source: http://www.sharesinv.com/articles/2013/02/05/dukang-distillers-%E2%80%93-still-growing-despite-industry-headwinds/

Saturday, March 2, 2013

Kori Holdings


Specs

PE Ratio: 4
Net asset value(NAV) per share: $0.35
Closing price on 1 March: $0.35

Their established track record and strong technical expertise for both structural steelworks and tunneling works has allow them to compete effectively with other industrial players. Their outlook will remain positive given the Building and Construction Authority(BCA) has projected S$26 billion to S$32 billion of construction demand for year 2013. They are confident of  winning the contracts from the upcoming Thomson MRT Line.


Potential Projects
  • Singapore
  • Malaysia

GOVERNMENTAL SUPPORT FOR INFRASTRUCTURAL 
DEVELOPMENT IN MALAYSIA
• Under the 10th Malaysia Plan, an economic blueprint that covers 
2011 to 2015, the Malaysian government has allocated 60% of 
RM230 billion for physical development
• Projects underway include the extension of an electrifi ed 
double-track railway project to Johor Bahru, the construction 
of a mass rapid transit system covering a 20km radius from the 
Kuala Lumpur city centre and the building of a new low cost 
carrier terminal at Kuala Lumpur International Airport
As at the Latest Practicable Date, the order book for the structural 
steelworks and tunnelling services business stood at approximately 
S$82.8 million, which would translate into revenues for the Group 
over the next one to three years.

GROWTH IN SINGAPORE’S INFRASTRUCTURE
• As the population and number of tourists and immigrants 
increase, the government will continue to see a need to raise its 
spending on projects for further infrastructure development
• These will include the need for more housing, transportation 
infrastructure and industrial facilities


About Kori Holdings
The Company was incorporated in Singapore on 18 May 2012 under the name of Kori Holdings Pte. Ltd. The Company was converted into a public limited company and changed its name to Kori Holdings Limited.

The Group is a Singapore based multi-discipline engineering and construction services company. The Group's principally engaged in providing civil/structural engineering and infrastructural construction services as a sub-contractor for commercial, industrial and public infrastructural construction projects. Its customers include local and overseas developers in the engineering construction industry.

The Group’s businesses can be categorised into two main segments as follows:
• structural steelworks services; and
• tunnelling services.

Source: SGX

Friday, March 1, 2013

Nice things coming



Thai Beverage reported a 145% jump in net profit in their FY2012 results. The outstanding performance could be attributable to their F&N acquisition which was instrumental in expanding their distribution networks in Asia.

Source: http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/VwAttachments/Att_3295A55B8DD2A4AB48257B1F0034019D/$file/YearEnd_2012_SGX_Format.pdf?openelement



Starhill Global REIT announced the completion of acquisition of Plaza Arcade in Perth which was strategically located next to their owned David Jones Building. Their Perth operations has expanded and their strategy followed similarly to Singapore's.

Similarities in acquisition strategies

Australia - Perth

  • Plaza Arcade
  • David jones Building
Their Perth operations are strategically located at the center of the city with a 200m radius from their financial hub, government house, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Hotels and 500m SW of Perth Convention and Exhibition Centre.


Singapore - Orchard

  • Ngee Ann City
  • Wisma Atria

Source: http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/VwAttachments/Att_79D8F2FBE72646DA48257B210014737A/$file/PlazaArcade130301.pdf?openelement


Silverlake Axis won new contract with Hong Leong Bank, Malaysia to implement Enterprise Payment Platform which will transform and modernize the banks's existing payment system into a centralized enterprise payment system with advanced intelligence workflow designs.

This deal as stated in the news realise, will contribute positively to the current and following financial year.

Source: http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/VwAttachments/Att_B59271BFD80F5D7248257B2100375DAC/$file/SAL_HLB.EPP.Announcement.pdf?openelement

Tuesday, February 26, 2013

Good Buying Opportunity

GLP confirms GIC's stake sale to rebalance portfolio.The Business Times had earlier reported that the sovereign wealth fund is planning to sell a 12.5 per cent stake in GLP for up to S$1.6 billion.

GIC reduced its stake to about 36.8% from 48.9%, according to one source.


This pose a good opportunity to purchase the shares at a lower price given its strategic positions located in Japan, China and Brazil, which according to GLP CEO Ming Mei is a fast-growing but under-served market with compelling opportunities for future growth.

This early entry into Brazil might prove advantageous when more demand for modern logistic facilities arise from its commodity exporting nation.

Graphical depiction of the country's exports

The picture clearly explains the Brazil economy and its capability of exporting commodities and logistics remain one of the key elements to support its growing economy.

Tuesday, February 12, 2013

Recent Stock Market Rally

Recent stock market rally has moved cautious investors into more stable blue chip stocks like ComfortDelgro, SIA Engineering and REITS.

Starhill Global REIT is something that i want to talk about today.




1 Feb 2013, they reported to dispose one of their Japan properties which account for 0.4% of their SGREIT's portfolio by asset value. Mr Ho Sing, Chief Executive Officer of YTL Starhill Global said “This divestment is part of SGREIT’s approach in reviewing and re-balancing our Japan portfolio. The sale price is attractive as it translates to a yield of 3.2%." The sale also improved Japan's portfolio occupancy from 92.7% to 94.3%. The fluctuating Yen has no impact on the deal as then Yen loans were fully hedged. The proceeds will be used substantially to repay the loan.


Previously on the 24 Jan 13, Starhill Global REIT announced the potential acquisition of the Plaza Arcade in Perth which is located next to David Jones Building. 


Assuming the acquisition is completed, there is potential of merging both Plaza Arcade and David Jones building together for more efficient management and reduced operating expenses of both malls. Below is the image of the sitemap:

click for enlargement


Conclusion

These two moves were great moves to strengthen the position of Starhill Global REIT. By reducing its less attractive property in Japan to have a 3.2% profit to reduce its debt in turn to finance the acquisition of the property in Perth which may lead to better management and reduced operating expenses, thus generating more dividends per unit(DPU) for shareholders.

Monday, February 4, 2013

Indication of a bigger aviation Expansion

Introducing the Future's Biggest Airports Two companies to look at in SGX for aircraft maintanance - SIA Engineering - ST-Engineering

Tuesday, January 29, 2013

Towards reliability for SMRT, but not growth


SMRT just released their 3rd quarter results and they say that their profitability will deteriorate due to higher operating costs.Staff costs for the Train and Bus operations are expected to significantly increase due to increased headcounts and market wage adjustments. Maintenance for train operations will increase due to enlarged train fleet and continuing to improve the reliability of the aging fleet and rail network.

Source: http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/VwAttachments/Att_49DF1DD28B2E1D4D48257B020034CA10/$file/results.pdf?openelement

I personally do not think it is a good choice to acquire any amount of SMRT shares due to their increased operational costs and their lack of visible growth plans or investments for the company. On top of the high operational costs, they are incurring more debts in order to pay dividends to their shareholders. Despite the rapid expansion of the MRT network in Singapore, these railway networks will likely incur costs to maintain. As reliability is the key to their operations, long term returns will not be sustainable, especially if they continue to pay dividends to the shareholders in the expense of debt.

*Disclaimer: I am not liable for any investment decision you make with regards to this post. Make your own investment decisions.

Monday, January 21, 2013

My thoughts on the recent property cooling measures

Private property prices are soaring but the price of HDB public housing is lagging behind. These recent cooling measures introduced by the government are not meant to bring down the stock market, but rather to slow down the bigger bubble created by the property sectors. Minister Tharman qualified that they “don’t intend to engineer a market crash.”

Source: http://sbr.com.sg/residential-property/news/city-developments-be-badly-hit-property-cooling-measures

In my opinion, the government is expecting property prices in Singapore to continue to appreciate, but is trying to slow down the price increase rate so as to allow the middle income Singaporeans to afford public housing and likely, to avoid a property bubble that affected Japan from 1986 to 1991. Bank borrowing rates now are cheap and thus, spurring foreigners to venture into the Singapore property market.

An example of this would be the crash of the Japanese asset price bubble from 1986 to 1991. The bubble's subsequent collapse lasted for more than a decade with stock prices initially bottoming in 2003. Due to the easily obtainable credit that helped fuel the real estate bubble for several years, and banks issuing out loans with low interest rates and have very little guarantee of being repaid.

More info here: http://www.docstoc.com/docs/77782026/Japanese-Asset-Price-Bubble---PowerPoint



Current housing loan from Bank of China (BOC)

Average of (SIBOR + SOR /2) is approximately 0.4% per month. 
The per year interest rates in general works out to be between 1.2-1.5% which is considered to be very low.

Example of a possible risk of increasing interest rates
If interest rates will go up from 1.5% to 6%, property investors will start to panic when they do not have enough money to pay the loans and start to default on their housing loans. Banks will start selling off properties at dirt cheap prices after confiscating from people who defaulted on their housing loans. This risk if applied to Singapore will greatly affect the property market as Singapore has a small land bank and if cheap properties fall into the hands of foreigners, it will affect the credibility of the Government to provide affordable housing for the public. 

Conclusion
Further cooling measures could be expected from the government to curb property prices. However, some of the developers will still be able to sell off their properties quickly due to the prime location of their development properties. One example is Bukit Sembawang, which prices soar from $4.85 to $6.5 in a span of about 6-7 months. I will not further elaborate the details but if you are interested to see what land they develop properties on, visit http://www.bukitsembawang.sg/

Friday, January 18, 2013

Bullish on the Airline Maintenance business


The airline industry is set to expand fast within the next few years with companies already submitting their orders for more planes to cope with the increased demand for transport  or vacation flights. With the increased number of flights operation to different parts of the world, the demand for maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) for flights have to be expanded to cater to more planes. SIA Engineering and ST Engineering are both MRO companies which are set to benefit from the aviation expansion. With more flights landing into Changi airport, SIA Engineering will expect more maintenance numbers to contribute to their revenue. 

ST Aero, a subsidary of ST-Engineering is in aircraft maintenance and engineering with operations in Singapore, Australia, USA and UK is also set to profit from the expanding aviation industry. The recent contract win from Royal Air Force of Oman shows that ST-Engineering is well positioned to penetrate the country-level type of contracts, possibly related to government links. I spoke with an ST staff regarding their business and he explained ST-Engineering benefits from the neutral stance of Singapore among the richest countries in the world. This might explained the consistent earning growth of the company and the capability of winning more contracts in future.


Expansion of the aviation industry shown in some of the news stated below:

AirAsia to buy 100 Airbus planes (dated 15 Dec 12)
source: http://www.philstar.com/business/2012/12/15/886091/airasia-buy-100-airbus-planes

Hawaiian plans to buy 16 new Airbus planes (dated 8 Jan 13)
source: http://news.yahoo.com/hawaiian-plans-buy-16-airbus-210437949.html

Oman set to buy 20 aircraft from BAe (dated 21 Dec 12)
Source: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/dec/21/oman-bae-fighter-jet-sale

China to buy 50 Airbus planes for $3.5bn (dated 30 Aug 12)
Source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-19419526


Wednesday, January 9, 2013

What investor are you?


Are you a dividend investor?

A dividend investor invests in stocks which provides the person a high return of 7-12% in dividends per year. Neratel, SATS

Are you a growth investor?

A growth investor invests in stocks which provide low dividends of about 3-5% but their value increases along with time. Etc. Super Group, Yeo Hup Seng.

Monday, December 31, 2012

Is Thai Beverage expensive?

Thai Beverage is currently trading 4 times its book value. For $0.40 per share, investors are owning $0.10 worth of their assets.

However, with the recent acquisition of F&N, Thai Beverage will be able to expand its distribution network in SEA.

Some institutions claimed that its valuations are still cheap.
Source: http://www.remisiers.org/cms_images/research/Dec10-Dec14_2012/Thai_Beverage_AmFraser_121211.pdf

I still think the valuations now are expensive but i've decided to spend a quarter of my reserves to buy Thai Beverage.

The amount of cash on hand now is crucial as the STI had hit a 1 year high. Whether it will drop or not within the next few months in 2013, it is always better to keep some spare cash in case good stocks become cheap.

This is the lesson i learned in 2011 when stock prices took a dive and i was desperate for cash as OCBC and Keppel dropped to ~$6. I did not manage to ride the wave as i was cashless at that point of time.

Saturday, December 29, 2012

GLP positioned for growth

Global Logistic Properties ("GLP") is one of the world's largest providers of modern logistics facilities, with a market-leading presence in China and Japan. It owns, manages and leases out 446 completed properties in 187 logistics parks spread across 36 major cities in China and Japan, forming an efficient logistics network with properties strategically located in key logistics hubs, industrial zones and urban distribution centres. By providing flexible solutions of Multi-tenant, Build-to-Suit and Sale and Leaseback, GLP is dedicated to improving supply chain efficiency to meet strategic expansion goals of the most dynamic manufacturers, retailers and 3rd party logistics companies in the world.

Source: http://www.glprop.com/businessModel.php


GLP had announced plans to invest US$334M to acquire assets in Brazil. Its CEO Ming Z Mei said: "We remain mindful of the global economic conditions, but are confident that our unrivalled market presence in China, Japan and now Brazil positions us well for future growth." 

Source: http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporebusinessnews/view/1237208/1/.html

Brazil is an emerging economy which of 2011 ranks 6th of the world's largest economies. Its economy is reliant to the export of commodities which includes, coffee, iron ore, oranges, sugar etc. Its major export partners includes US, China and Argentina. 

Currency rate for Brazil remained weak as Brazil’s central bank has sold reverse currency swaps to keep the real weaker than 2 per dollar to support exporters. It sold $1.4 billion of contracts Oct. 25, $1.6 billion Oct. 23, $1.3 billion Oct. 5, $5.7 billion Sept. 12 through Sept. 17 and $350 million Aug. 21. The August reverse swaps were the first since March.


Brazil is an emerging economy with its still weak currency which makes it an attractive place to be invested in. The acquisition from GLP could reflect gains if the Brazilian currency strengthens. 

GLP with its NAV of ~$2.2 last closed at $2.74 at SGX. This stock has positioned itself for future growth and is worth a good look at.

Friday, December 28, 2012

Know what you are buying

Rowsley, a company controlled by businessman Peter Lim announced plans for a S$581 million deal that will transform Rowsley into a major real estate player.


Source: http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/VwAttachments/Att_93D67C6962F8B30548257ADB001CF5C4/$file/RowsleyLtd.MediaRelease_21.12.2012.pdf?openelement

Based on the 2012-2013 half year results, Rowsley write off a net loss of about $26M and had a NAV (net asset value) of $0.0427.

It's closing price today is still at $0.295. The price to NAV ratio is about 7:1. For every $700 you invest in this stock, you are only buying $100 of its assets.

People playing contra on the stock market are heavily buying up this stock. But if you are playing it, don't expect it to maintain its upward trend since numbers have shown that it is expensive and overvalued.







Monday, December 24, 2012

Bangkok trip to study Thai Beverage

It was a very fruitful trip to bangkok as along the way, i did some market research on Thai Beverage.

The Chang brand in Thailand symbolizes their local brand just like Tiger Beer which signifies Tiger Beer in Singapore.

Apart from operating their beer business, they also own 89.259% of Oishi Group.
Oishi group operates a wide variety of beverages from green tea, black tea and coffee.
Its beverage business resembles Pokka.

Oishi group operates about 6 types of different Japanese restaurants in Thailand.

Oishi group distributes food to convenience stalls in Thailand

Oishi group also operates catering and food delivery services in Thailand.

Thai Beverage owns 64.66% of Serm Suk Public Company which manufactures and distributes beverages throughout Thailand.

"Our strong point is our distribution system," said Parinya Permpanich, marketing/sales operation director, adding that Serm Suk has five bottling plants and 48 branch offices throughout the Kingdom. The company has 1,200 sales trucks, 150,000 coolers and more than 200,000 retail outlets and eateries that are ready to support the est product line, Parinya said.


Thai Beverage is able to utilise the wide distribution capabilities of SermSuk. Oishi Group on the other hand is able to enjoy cost efficiency by carrying Chang, est Cola beverages in its restaurants, and also widening Thai Beverage distribution network.

Thai people will continue to consume products by these companies. Thai Beverage is trying to maintain the monopoly and, recently it purchased F&N stakes in an attempt to expand the Chang beer business within Singapore and other parts of Asia.

The upward growth potential of the company is limitless. However, the current debt to equity ratio may be a worry after the acquisition of 29% F&N.

The combination of Thaibeverage, Oishi Group and Serm Suk is perfect. This is the perfect stock to invest in.

But it is not a good time to go in now because they recently took a loan from a Singapore bank.















Friday, December 14, 2012

My lesson on Bukit Sembawang


I bought this stock last year at $4.5 and it dropped to $3.80 subsequently. I didn't know what was going on initially and thought that this stock did not perform well. After which in August this year, I decided to sell the stock because I thought it had gone back to its high of $4.77.

However, this stock did not drop further when i sold it, instead it shoot all the way up to $6.80 on last Friday 14 Dec 12's closing on SGX.

After this incident, i realised that i don't actually know what i was buying at that point of time. This 2Q2013, its Net Asset Value (NAV) went up from $3.08 last year 2Q2012 to $4.29. Its balance sheet reflected little low debts and almost 88% of its assets were made up of its share capital and reserves.

Shareholders were owning more of its assets than their company debts and thus, it reflected more value in the company followed by the rise of share price value.

Prices in private home in Singapore are not likely to go down. It is because more wealthy people from all over the world are coming here to settle down due to a number of factors like low crime, stable government, clean environment and good infrastructure transport network. (International Living 2010) "The wealthy are attracted to Singapore for its location, low taxes, clean environment and low crime; that’s why there are so many rich Chinese and Indians living there. Singapore also attracts the global wealthy, such as hedge fund managers who need a base in Asia."

My lesson on this is that as property prices go up, earnings of property holding companies are likely to go up as well.

The principal activity of the Bukit Sembawang Estates is an investment holding company whilst the principal activities of the subsidiaries are those of property development, property mortgage financing and the holding of properties and investments. The Group mostly developes landed properties around the Seletar and Sembawang areas.

Reference List
International Living. 2010. Singapore: Where Wealthy People Are Putting Their Money. [ONLINE] Available at:http://internationalliving.com/2010/08/singapore-where-wealthy-people-are-putting-their-money/. [Accessed 15 December 12].

Sunday, December 9, 2012

Market Updates

SGX

1Q2013 NAV =$6.5. Revenue reduced 4-5%. Now might not be a good time to buy in.
Wait till March-May period for a buy in $6.5 or below

SMRT

Extremely high borrowing costs, accompanied by strong operations/maintance costs puts SMRT in a bad shape.

Thai Beverage

Watch out for their next results. Cash flow generated from operations have to increase significantly in order to fund high borrowings from the acquisition of ~30% in F&N.

Silverlake Axis

High cash generated from operations, together with less investing and financing costs puts this company in a very strong financial position. Bought in at $0.465.

The Hour Glass

Cash flow indicates a higher borrowing cost to fund its overseas expansion. If net cash generated from operations are able to cover financing and investing cost, then it may be an indicator to start buying.

Starhill Global REIT

Cash flow indicates more debt than earnings due to the revamp of Wisma Atria. May need to wait a while for this counter to rebound as it need more time to repay borrowings.