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Monday, August 6, 2012

How i look at stock market

Let me bring you back to the period of Apr this year. The "ultra low cost financing" from ECB to the rest of the European banks which to me means the printing of about 1 trillion euros.

Source: http://money.cnn.com/2012/04/19/markets/ecb-euro-financing/index.htm

Some of these money as indicated by the source went back to the government bonds. The rest of the money will flow to Asia and the other parts of the world.

My previous study of Foreign Direct Investments (FDI):
Source: http://investingsgx.blogspot.sg/2012/05/fdi-in-singapore-global-recession.html

My assessment of the cash injection will impact the markets in approx. 1 year. The injection in April this year will likely cause stock markets going at an uptrend from Nov 12 to Apr 13.

When the stock markets are high may mean 2 things.

  1. The liquidity/FDI hit the asian markets or ...
  2. Inflation rises, therefore causing market prices to rise
However, in the long run, markets are not likely to stay bad forever. Here are two examples of why:

  1. Asia Buyers Snap Up Australian Hotels As Mining Boom Fills Rooms. Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-06/asia-buyers-snap-up-australian-hotels-as-mining-boom-fills-rooms.html
  2.    Movement in the Breweries sector, F&N( Fraser and Neave), Thai Beverage, Heineken and APB( Asian Pacific Breweries). Source:  http://business.asiaone.com/Business/News/Story/A1Story20120804-363352.html


Conclusion

Companies / Sovereign Weath Funds are still buying up assets around the world. There are still cheap bargains out there waiting to be bought.

 Wilmar price in May: $4.9. Now : $3.27

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