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Monday, June 8, 2015

What's behind IMF asking the Fed to delay interest rates hikes till 2016?

IMF had asked the Fed to delay interest rates hike till 2016. However, is there a reason behind this?

Source: http://money.cnn.com/2015/06/04/news/economy/imf-federal-reserve-rate-hike-2016/

Recently, George Soros, the legendary investor had called on the U.S to provide advanced weapons to aid Ukraine against a Russian aggression. However, Ukraine is broke and therefore if U.S were to go ahead to supply weapons, it will have to be financed through their own pockets.

George Soros advised the Ukrainian leadership to regain control of the markets, in which he could push for the Federal Reserve to extend  a $15 billion three months swap arrangement with the National Bank of Ukraine. Soros told Poroshenko that the IMF would need to come through with a $15 billion package, which was confident would lead the Fed to also come through with more money. This move would reassure the markets to avoid a panic.

Source:
http://english.pravda.ru/news/world/08-06-2015/130910-soros_usa_weapons_poroshenko-0/
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article50995.html

Is this one of the factors that led to the IMF asking for a delay in interest rates hike?

Personal View
I think that with such big political intention out there, interest rates hike could be set for a delay till 2016. US weapons manufacturer will benefit from this. Equity markets in US will continue to rally in a low interest rates environment.

If the war situation between Russia and Ukraine tightened, oil price could go up as well. Inflation rates will not be spared as the cost of living increase around the world.

Investors who hold equities and properties will continue to ride the inflation wave. With so much outflow in US, investment in US treasury bonds may not bean attractive option.

The low ringgit in Malaysia is unusual because oil price recovered to $58-62 per barrel from previously a low of $40 a barrel, but yet the ringgit is not strengthening. There is more to be discovered on the weakening of the ringgit.

I'm heading to bed now, so i'll end my blog post here. Good night!

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